February 2nd, 2026

Hi All,

My first blog of February, how time flies when you are enjoying yourself !

January 2026 will go down alongside December and November 2025 as a truly dull and dreary month with very high amounts of rainfall. In particular the south coast, south west of England, Wales and The North West have been in the firing line. Further north there has been a significant amount of winter snow. The only positive I can draw on is that at least we have recovered a significant % of depleted water reserves from last years drought. For Denmark, they have had a very hard, typically-Scandinavian winter.

I think it is fair to say that we have had enough of the rainfall and the associated dull conditions that come with that rainfall. There have been numerous images of worn out pitches with play continuing throughout the winter without the chance of recovery due to low temperatures and poor DLI (Daily Light Interval) levels. not everyone has the luxury of undersoil heating and light rigs. Just had some rainfall stats drop into my Inbox from Okehampton (cheers Pete !) on the edge of Dartmoor. 198mm for the month vs. a 1991-2020 Met Office average for that area of 118.69mm. That is 67% higher than the 30-year average and shows how The South West has taken a hammering of late.

We are though I feel turning the corner. Day length at The Winter Solstice on December 21st, 2025 was 7hrs and 49mins, whereas day length today is 9hrs 14 mins and by the end of this month, 10hrs 51m.

Yesterday, as I wrestled with numerous overdue jobs on my BMW R9T motorcycle, I was conscious of how it was staying lighter for longer and hey it even felt mild at 9°C !

February though as a month has been a highly variable one of late, with two record breaking months in the last few years.

Here's some stats from my default location at The Oxfordshire, Thame, U.K ;

Year Rainfall E.T GDD @ 6°C base

(in mm) (in mm)

2022 60.8 26.7 42.2

2023 4.2 19.9 34.6

2024 110.2 19.0 77.2

2025 49.6 16.2 26.2

So, in recent years we have had one of the driest on record, followed immediately by one of the wettest on record. What February 2026 will bring is anyone's guess but let's look at how the first half of the month is currently projected to pan out.

ECMWF Projection courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

General Weather Situation

OK, so before we look at this week and next week's weather outlook, we have to be aware that meteorologists are signalling another major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event is due to take place in early February. The term is at first sight contradictory because it is described as a warming event but the reality is that such an event can cause the normal west - east weather flow (courtesy of the jet stream) to slow down and in extreme cases, stop. This then means that colder air out in the east and north east can push across and we have a 'Beast from the East' scenario, so beloved of the mainstream media. In the animated GIF's above, we are looking for a slow-down in the speed of the jet stream and an easterly - westerly airflow. There are signs that this is happening this week but if ia SSW event is going to affect our weather I would expect to see this later into the month, typically from mid-February onwards. If you want to understand more about the latest Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, you can read about it here.

Owing to the uncertainty associated with a SSW event, I think we just need to take the weather one week at a time as anything beyond 5-7 days forecast-wise will carry a high degree of uncertainty attached, whether it is stated or otherwise.

So, this week sees a southerly-biased, Atlantic low pressure system rock up just off the south west of Ireland. Normally this would then push across the U.K & Ireland over an 18-hour period. Not so this time, you can see it grinds to a halt and fails to make progress eastwards, so already we see a weakening of the jet stream.

This week then sees that nearby low pressure introduce a primary easterly airflow and a showery outlook to our weather rather than a big hit of rain. So not completely dry by any means but less rain than in recent weeks. The closer you are to that low pressure (south / south west of England and Ireland), the more rain you'll see. That forecast holds for most areas of the U.K, including the north and Scotland with I think a greater potential for that moisture to turn more wintry in nature across eastern Scotland. There is even a suggestion of those wintry showers further south on Thursday. For Denmark, you look set fair to stay very cold with further wintry showers and a chilly north east wind. In a way that is good, better for everything to stay frozen than to have freeze / thaw cycles.

Agronomic Notes

It is difficult at this time of year to write something that is agronomically relevant, however I'll give it a go. Last week I was down talking to the Racecourse Association at Lingfield Park (thanks to everyone at the RCA for their hospitality and feedback) talking to Clerks of the Course and groundsmen / women who maintain and are responsible for horse racing tracks. It struck me how their issues are in some areas directly aligned with those from winter season pitches and golf.

The biggest one in the spotlight is water.

Water from a perspective of abstraction and supply going forward and / or dealing with too much of it, whilst maintaining the 'going' where it needs to be. Also moisture monitoring and mapping across their courses is another area of interest in order to provide consistency. When you look at this list of considerations, it strikes me how similar they are to the other areas of our industry be it football, cricket or golf of course. It also strikes me also how important it is to have a platform to share those ideas and experiences during education events, be it with the RCA, BIGGA or GMA.

Daily Light Interval vs. Growth Potential - Central England

Growth and light.....

I mentioned above that along with the high rainfall levels over the past few months, we have of course had heavy Nimbostratus rain clouds (low level grey rain clouds) and consequently very low levels of solar radiation and therefore PAR (plant-available radiation). PAR powers photosynthesis and therefore energy production for the grass plant and so when we have low levels of PAR, we have a grass plant with low recuperative energy. This means the potential for the grass plant to recover is very low. If you look at the image above you can see on the lower graph, the Daily Light Interval (DLI) plotted for the period September 2025 to the end of January 2026. The DLI is the total amount of plant-available light over a 24-hour period and I have drawn a red line at the stated lower sufficiency range for Lolium perenne - Perennial ryegrass.

The graph shows that in that period we have only had 4 days, yes that is 4 days when we had sufficient DLI light to power the photosynthetic process in ryegrass in order to facilitate growth and recovery. At the same time, on the upper graph you can see the daily Growth Potential plotted, with a red line showing good winter growth levels. When it comes to temperature, the situation is different. We had sufficient temperature right up to the middle of December to facilitate growth.

So we have two drivers, temperature facilitating growth and light depleting the plant's potential to produce energy to support that growth. What gives then ?

Well, my contention is that the growth the grass plant produces during periods of mild temperature, but below-optimum light is more elongated, with thinner cell walls. Imagine a grass plant grown on the windowsill during the winter. The temperature inside is conducive to growth but unless you supplement the light levels, the plant will grow 'leggy', stretching up towards light. I think the same happens in this situation outside. An elongated grass plant with thinner cell walls is less able to tolerate wear and more susceptible to disease. If you measure clipping yields, that may mean you will measure more on shaded greens as there is more upright growth.

If you are seeing your ryegrass areas thin out on areas of wear like golf tees or winter season pitches, it isn't surprising. The hope is as day length extends, we get more DLI and then the plant can re-balance. Fingers crossed on that one.

It is worth pointing out that this example is for Perennial ryegrass, but bear in mind it is appropriate for any cool season grass species. Most have a potentially higher DLI requirement than for Lolium perenne, with the notable exception of Perennial Poa I think.

I will leave you with that thought till next week.

All the best.

Mark Hunt