January 26th, 2026

Hi All,

Back from what turned out to be a hectic week at Harrogate BTME 2026 Conference and Exhibition. It started on Sunday for me with the Speakers Dinner, then talking at the conference, stand set up, 2 1/2 days of great interaction, feedback and interest and then pack down in the wettest weather I can remember with 16mm of rain falling on that particular day. In-between I squeezed in a number of visits to Betty's, a regular (and brill) morning hook up with Ken Siems over a Flat White and a very muddy run up to Harlow Crag but I didn't get out of bed for the Syngenta run as I have an aversion for morning running. I am definitely an Owl and not a Lark in terms of exercise timing !!

Lot's of discussion about A.I at BTME and its influence on our industry and I had a number of questions about this both after my talk and through the week. It is without doubt a very promising technology with clear applications in meteorology, disease modelling and autonomous mowers to name but a few, however I would just advise some caution. New technologies need validation to prove that the answers they provide are correct.

I will give you a simplistic example.

I asked 2 A.I websites to draw an outline map of the U.K & Ireland and place a number of golf club locations on that map. I asked numerous times, I mentioned that their map wasn't accurate and still the result (above) was totally incorrect. It even acknowledged that it was wrong when I made the comment that the result was err....crap. I mean just about all of the locations are incorrect and there's some made-up ones in there as well. Now this is a simplistic example, it is (apparently) an area that A.I isn't 'very good at' at the moment.

Do you know what though, I know a number of (young) people that wouldn't know this map is incorrect because they don't have the basic general knowledge. That is the worrying thing, that we just accept everything that A.I throws our way and assume it is correct. Well it isn't. One of the areas that does intrigues me is the power of A.I to spot patterns in data, that to me seems a tool of great potential and one I'll be deep diving into this year.

There's also the dove-tailing of visual observations made on the turf you maintain with what the data says. To me you need the practical side of good greenkeeping married to data in order to optimise turf management, one doesn't replace the other IMHO.

Did my RSPB Big Garden Birdwatch yesterday (23-25/01/26). It amazes me at this time of year how nature functions. When I put the bird food out, topped up the feeders and placed some small suet balls in my Berberis bush, there was hardly a bird about and then suddenly a half an hour later, the garden was full of activity as Blue, Coal, Great and Long Tailed Tits descended on the feeders and Blackbirds squabbled over the ground food. Thankfully the Grey Wagtails turned up too, they'll be here for another month and then away again to feed more naturally until November. We noticed a big drop in our Blackbird numbers last year and I found some dead with no marks of harm. It looks like the Usutu virus (USUV) may be responsible sadly. One of the female Blackbirds in particular follows me around the garden and when I am working on my motorbikes in the garage, she pops in and sits on my fishing rods and watches me. I swear it is my mum reincarnated as she gazes disapprovingly at my oil-covered hands.

The Met Office's explanation as to why this week isn't Baltic...Watch it on Facebook here

General Weather Situation

The Met Office are making some great improvements to their front-facing output in recent months. First up they have a new weather app which is worth hooking up to and they are now doing regular updates on Facebook to inform on the current state of the weather and why it is so. Facebook I know isn't for everyone but it is a start.

In my last blog, two weeks ago, I pointed to the potential of very cold weather likely to come our way this week, with a return of The Beast from the East. Right up till last Friday, this was on course and then suddenly it all changed on the weather output to a milder, wetter and windier theme.

So why the sudden change ?

ECMWF output courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

If you click on The Met Office link above it explains it far better than I can but essentially late last week we saw a block of very cold Arctic air push down across eastern America. You can see it in the image above. The dark green line on the image is the path of the jet stream and as we know it moves between regions of cold and warm air. The bigger the temperature differential between the two regions of cold and warm air, the more energy is imparted into the jet stream. The more energy in the jet stream, the stronger it flows from west to east and that essentially is the rub.

For the cold weather to dominate we needed a slow-moving jet stream that would allow an easterly air flow. Instead we have a humdinger of a low pressure system pushing in from The Atlantic with very strong winds and heavy rain associated with it. Even worse, it'll butt up against the cold air across the continent and get stuck (which is usually a recipe for very high local rainfall totals).

10-day ECMWF Projection courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

So, that's the craic for the first part of the week, a cold, settled start for the U.K, but the first tranche of heavy rain is already pushing into Kerry and west Ireland. This will most likely become another named storm system called Storm Chandra.

Now this first band will quickly cross The Irish Sea into The South West and Wales this afternoon. Not great just after the chaos caused by Storm Ingrid to Devon and Cornwall over the weekend. Across The North Sea in Denmark, we have a weak weather front crossing the south and east of Denmark. With cold air here, this means you're more likely to see sleet and snow showers through Monday and Tuesday. Whilst I am on the subject of Denmark, great to see everyone from my Motherland visit the stand last week, thanks to you all and yes I will try my hardest with your very difficult language 😀

Back to the weather...

So that heavy tranche of rain will move across the southern part of the U.K in the early hours of Tuesday and tilt more northward during the course of the day, so wet and windy it will be on Tuesday, with some of that rain turning to hill snow across elevation / more northern regions. So Tuesday is a rough day for the U.K & Ireland. Wednesday provides a hiatus as that rain moves away from Ireland and the U.K in the latter part of Tuesday. So dry and reasonably mild for this time of year, still with a south east wind though and some sunshine. It doesn't last though as the next front of rain is already pushing across Ireland and into The South West, pm Wednesday before pushing across the U.K, overnight into Thursday. As one front moves through, another is hot on its heels, so another wet day on Thursday particularly for England during the second part of the day. Denmark looks to stay cold and settled with light snow showers across the south. Friday looks to start dry before rain pushes up again from the south. So if you were hoping for a dry week, I am sorry, it isn't going to happen.

The weekend looks like a sunshine and showers type affair with some heavier rain mixed in as well.

Weather Outlook

Next week, hmmm another tricky balance between strong Atlantic systems and that cold air still sitting east of us. As we have seen with this week's weather, it can turn on a sixpence, hence my reluctance sometimes in terms of predicting what is coming.

Ok, my take on it is that the Atlantic airflow will prevail until the end of next week, so that means more south westerly winds, milder (ish) air and rain. At present, the ECMWF has the main frontal system not making progress from a position west of Ireland and if that transpires to be the case, it means the Ireland and the west may bear the brunt of it, however if the jet stream retains its strength (which I think it will) then I think that rain will push across the U.K as well. With high pressure sitting east of us, I expect Denmark to remain on the cold side with more snow, sleet and frozen rain showers potentially.

The interesting part is the weekend after next. Now as we know that's a long, long way away speaking meteorologically, but one projection is for the jet stream to move southwards, allowing a new low to push in to the south of the U.K and that'll spin the winds back to easterly and possibly (possibly!) a resurgence of more colder weather moving towards the middle of February. One to keep an eye on.

Agronomic Notes

So this week I thought this week I would have a look at how we finished last year from a moisture surplus / deficit situation. I mean we have had so much rain since the beginning of November, we are probably all 1) Sick of it and 2) In a soil surplus situation ? Yes ? well err no.

Below are 3 charts showing rainfall vs. E.T vs. soil moisture surplus / deficit for 2025.

Southport

Bury St Edmunds

Bath

So as you can see with me picking 3 different locations within the U.K, we have 3 very different rainfall vs. E.T scenario's.

Across East Anglia (and The East Midlands) we ended 2025 in a deficit situation, with I think 150-200mm of soil moisture deficit typical. Now so far this month we have had 55- 90mm in January with plenty more to come I know, but we will still be in a deficit situation with some way to go. For Lancashire, here we finished with a surplus situation of +110mm after a pretty brutal November and December. Finally we look at the south west of England, which has been right in the firing line for this run of southerly-biased, Atlantic storm systems. Here they finished 2025 with a surplus of 367mm, that's 14 inches in old money after a run of wet weather that started in September and hasn't finished yet. Already the same Davis weather station that I took data from in Bath is showing 98mm of rainfall for January 2026, with Storm Chandra just about to rock up.

I am sure the majority of sites are in a surplus situation as I type this now, but across the east of the U.K (and not just in East Anglia, but in the north east as well) we are still playing catch up. As days begin to meaningfully lengthen at the end of January, we will also see the E.T levels rise from pretty insignificant at the moment to provide some real term drying.

OK, I will leave you with that thought as Storm Chandra arrives on the west coast of Ireland. I'll be taking my waterproofs tomorrow for my 1st install of 2026!

All the best.

Mark Hunt