December 9th, 2025
- Mark Hunt
- 4 days ago
- 6 min read
Hi All,
Well, as I type this blog it looks like being one of those days when it hardly bothers to get light. Another storm is battering our shores, this one, Storm Bram, named by Met Éireann in honour of the Irish writer, Bram Stoker who penned Dracula, just in case you were wondering.
The orientation of the storm will affect the Ireland, westerly-facing U.K coasts and the north west is a classic SW-NE, Atlantic storm vector. South Wales has picked up an additional flood warning in addition to the wind warnings and I note >35mm of rain has fallen onto already saturated ground around Newport, Wales by 9 am. Some areas are projected to receive over 80mm over a 24-hour period.
Last week, I was out walking across Rutland and took this picture looking across the River Chater valley from the cracking Picks Barn Cafe at Lyndon village, where myself and my significant other are a 'Two Soups' regular (See the famous Julie Walters comedy sketch I am eluding to here). If you're ever up visiting Rutland Water, this one is a great place to grab brekkie, lunch or a cuppa. I digress.
The image is from the well-known, Sun Seeker app showing the current arc of the sun (in yellow) vs. the sun's arc at the lowest point of the year in blue, representing the Winter Solstice on December 21st. So we are 12 days away from the turning point for spring and that's a fact I wanted to communicate to you, if you're looking at a sodden pitch or golf course and despairing, hopefully that thought may console you a little.
Whilst typing this blog, I spotted a slight reprieve in the rainfall, so sneaked in a splashy 4.5 mile run (yes I still run imperial :)) up an old railway line close to my house. Imagine my delight (as I laboured to get enough air into my asthmatic lungs and contemplated my mental state) to see 5 Bullfinches feeding in a Blackthorn. These beautiful birds used to be a regular feature of my childhood walks but suffered a severe decline in numbers as Raptor levels bounced back from their DDT-imposed slump. Lately they have started to recover their numbers again and favour the spikey Blackthorn as protection against the ever-present threat posed by Sparrowhawks and Peregrine Falcons. I know and appreciate it is the balance of nature, the natural ying-yang of predator-prey relationships, nice to see all the same.
Last week I talked about the potential for a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event to put a potential end to this run of Atlantic low pressure systems with a colder interlude. Both the GFS and ECMWF were hinting this may be the case later this week.
Well it won't, the jet stream is super-strong at present and will prevail in pushing low pressure after low pressure our way for the current period, however there is a suggestion of high pressure forming over the Christmas period. Now it is right at the end of forecasting projections so prone to change but it is something to keep an eye on from a potential break in the rainfall sequence and possibly a disease risk perspective as well
For the present it is a 'hang onto your hats' week (if you aren't already doing so) with a strong (and mild) airstream primarily from the south west as you can see from the closely-packed, isobars in the GIF above. That said we do get a bit of a hiatus between rain events with Wednesday and Thursday looking more sunshine and showers-type weather rather than heavy rainfall before more rain arrives at the end of week and into the weekend for all areas, including Denmark. Indeed, Saturday maybe a soggy one for Christmas shoppers on Strøget ! , I'd head to a Lagerhuset and have a cuppa, a Tebirkes and watch the world go by.
The one positive I think we can take from the forecast is that the combination of strong winds and mild air means areas will dry down quicker. It used to be the case in years gone by that the roads stayed wet and greasy from early November to the end of February, but I have noticed how they are now drying down between rainfall events recently. That may help a little from a grass leaf perspective and lack of dew formation. (Little wins)
So wet, wild and windy for the first part of this week and then a drier hiatus, particularly for the southern half of the U.K, before more wetter, showery weather comes to play at the end of the week. A little cooler than of late with temperatures dipping from the low teens to 10-11°C in the day and 4-6°C at night. A couple of degrees down for Denmark during the day. I also note the jet stream is edging up a bit which will mean less rain for the southern half of the U.K.
Weather Outlook
Monday and Tuesday next week promise to be a west-east and north-south divide because it looks like we will see more rain, some of it heavy affecting the west and north of the U.K, whilst the south and east misses most of it, courtesy of a temporary peak in the jet stream. So a drier interlude for a couple of days. From mid-week, a new Atlantic low pressure pitches up to return us to stronger, south westerly winds and rain spreading across all parts for another spell of wet and windy weather to see out the week. I would add the eternal weather caveat that the outlook is extremely changeable and regularly tips from this scenario to something much colder, so we will see.
Agronomic Notes
So this year, this autumn and winter, it is all about the growth conundrum.
After some very high Microdochium pressure during October and November, there is a lot of scarring on surfaces, so one side of the growth coin is that we are still seeing recovery from these autumnal attacks, even in the first week of December and that's a bonus. Provided (and I have discussed this before) of course that the 'growth habit' is conducive to tillering rather than elongated growth that doesn't serve to fill in and grow over previously-damaged areas. Lots of rain this autumn / winter also means a consistent lack of sunlight and low Daily Light Interval (DLI) figures. So if you can find a spray window AND ground conditions allow, you could be forgiven for slipping a half-rate PGR in with your winter foliar / hardener. The continuation of growth later into the year isn't a new phenomenon, it's a climatic trend we have seen over the last 20 or so years. We almost expect some mild, south westerly-induced weather at some point now don't we ? Warmer air and soil temperatures combined with no limitation on moisture (quite the opposite in fact for some areas) mean more natural growth and therefore less requirement for nitrogen applications late in the season.
A win-win then ?
Well, maybe, but the other side of that continual growth coin is a requirement to cut, particularly on heavy soil, outfield scenarios, winter season pitches, fairways and roughs. These areas keep growing and growing, but getting out to be able to cut them is a consistent challenge. My local golf club in Market Harborough is built on heavy clay and this time of year is a nightmare for them on higher-height-of-cut areas, keeping up with growth on fairways, semi and cut rough, as well as tees and greens. Keeping open is a challenge. Keeping playable, likewise.
The graph above charting out the Daily Growth Potential vs. Daily rainfall in mm for a location in the north west of England neatly (I think) shows how growth is continuing (above the red line) during significant daily rainfall events. Just look at today, 20mm+ of rainfall with a Daily G.P hovering around 0.6.
So spare a thought for those maintaining turf in sub-optimal soil conditions under that dual combination of heavy rainfall and growth.
All the best.
Mark Hunt