February 16th, 2026

Hi All,

Apologies for the lack of blog last week but I have a full workload currently splitting my time between installing weather stations, troubleshooting (lack of light isn't great for solar-powered kit) and preparing talks. Last autumn, I decided to reduce my public-speaking commitments because it takes me a good deal of prep time and I have the ever-present question of delivering something to the people I am addressing that is interesting, educational and above all....relevant (JC™). The feedback I have had speaking to end-users is so far, so good, in terms of the 'R' word and my talks, so that's grand. Good job really because between now and the end of May I am if anything over-committed on that front, so this blog will be a little irregular this spring., my apologies.

Next up, I am speaking at the Bigga Southern Conference on Wednesday March 4th at St Mary's Stadium, Southampton, you can see the event program and book here if the mood takes you :).

I am going to look at weather forecasting including some of The Met Office's new output, the climate trends that matter most when it comes to turf management and their agronomic consequences. Better get writing it eh ? 😊

I am not a fan of self-promotion, it doesn't sit well with the Danish side of my character so the above is purely just for info to those that might be interested. The next evening, I am talking about Saltwater fly fishing in the U.K to the Rutland Water Fly Fishers, I expect a hostile crowd and a lot of barracking at that one 😀

The snippet above taken from our Prodata Report software for a golf course on the Devon / Cornwall border highlights how the last 4 months in many areas of the U.K & Ireland have been extremely dull, extremely wet and well...extremely err rubbish.

January nearly made it to the 200mm mark and there's plenty of areas that I know did.

I could write that in some areas we needed absolutely all of this rain to bring groundwater and reservoir levels back to where they needed to be after the long drought of 2025. I could and it would be true but it doesn't change the fact that keeping courses and sports facilities open during this run of weather has been tough. Plenty of pictures on social media of worn out ryegrass pitches struggling under the effects of extremely low plant-available light (DLI) and constant play. I have put up enough graphs on this blog to highlight the fact the since the beginning of October, the number of days when the light was sufficient enough for the plant to photosynthesise, make energy and grow, could be counted on one hand. Put simply it has been tough.

We are though heading in the right direction, just the odd fleeting glimpse of spring sunshine, feeling that warmth on your face is a tonic. The ever-lengthening days as well are really noticeable now. not long to go then and hopefully there's something around the corner weather-wise to break this current run ?

So is there ?

General Weather Situation

ECMWF 10-day projection courtesy of tropicaltidbits.com

So this week is panning out as follows according to the ECMWF projection.

Monday starts off the week changeable with a cool, north westerly wind and frequent showers pushing in off The Irish Sea. That wind will be on the nippy side and the showers blustery. Later in the day, the skies will clear and many areas could experience a ground frost. For Denmark it looks to me like winter continues with a cold, south easterly wind to start the week, tilting more easterly on Tuesday as a North Sea low pressure system brings snow into the picture. Back across The North Sea, Tuesday looks like being the best day of the week with plenty of winter sunshine after a possible ground frost as that north west wind swings to the east and lightens as it does so.

That's the good news.

Now comes the rougher part of the week as a southerly low pressure system eases into Ireland late on Tuesday and then pushes rain and wind easterly into the western side of the U.K on Wednesday afternoon and then continues to move slowly eastwards over the southern half of the U.K on Thursday. This low pressure system will again be southerly-biased (yet another yes) and so it'll spin the wind round to the east and that means some of the rain may turn to snow later on Wednesday night.

It is just worth pointing out that this winter of late, the jet stream has been lying in a southerly position (dark green band at base of image).

The consequence of this is that instead of low pressure systems running into the west of Ireland and moving north east across The Irish Sea into the north west of England, these same weather systems move across the south and south east of Ireland (so Cork, Wexford and Wicklow have been in the firing line). They then continue into the south west of England and South Wales before crossing the southern half of the U.K.

You can see this pattern clearly on The Met Office rainfall map for January vs. the 30-year average (1991-2020 anomaly) shown below ;

January 2026 rainfall vs. 1991-2020 anomaly courtesy of The Met Office

After trashing the southern half of the U.K and Wales, it then meanders out into The North Sea, butts up against that cold air over the continent, picks up more moisture and pulls that rainfall into the north east of England and Scotland. (explaining the surplus noted on the map).

Video courtesy of Meteoblue.com find it on their website here

Meteoblue.com do a brilliant animation of wind, temperature and pressure systems on their website and the above clearly shows the modus operandi that I have detailed previously. So this low pressure system will take till the end of Thursday to go through the motion of crossing the south of the U.K and bringing rain, sleet and snow as it does so, accompanied by a biting easterly wind. Friday is a hiatus day, calmer, milder and drier. We will also see the wind swing round to the south west, gain in intensity and temperatures rise as a consequence. The weekend is therefore an unsettled affair, wind, mild and with rain fronts pushing across the U.K & Ireland. Now it isn't all bad news because this change will mean milder air pushing into double figures across Ireland and the U.K, a more sunshine and showers dynamic rather than entrenched rainfall and between the showers it'll be sunny and warm.

This change also signals a high pressure front trying to push up into the southern part of the U.K and Ireland for the start of next week, so that looks like the milder, sunshine and showers scenario is set to last into next week. That milder airstream looks to cross The North Sea into Denmark at the back end of last week, pushing in showers of rain and sleet from the weekend into the beginning of next week. Remaining cool here vs. the balmy temperatures across Ireland, Wales and England.

Agronomic Notes

The change to milder weather later this week will bring the first meaningful growth for awhile with the Growth Potential likely to pick up towards the 0.3 - 0.4 for 4-5 days possibly.

Now, I have always felt that this time of year is the preserve of granular applications, particularly slow release, controlled release, organic-based, etc. In other words a fertiliser technology that is resistant to leaching, trickles out a small amount of nutrient rather than a 40kg per N / ha 'hammer to crack a walnut' affair and gently picks up the sward health and vigour without forcing it on.

Remember this grass plant has had very little opportunity for meaningful photosynthesis over the last 4 months, so that means its carbohydrate reserves are likely to be low in my mind and at risk of depletion if utilised too quickly.

Granular products are also much easier to apply (no need to take a heavy sprayer out onto your surfaces) at this time of year, with less requirement for a spray window vs. an application window. The right formulation will just tick you through this month and into the beginning of spring without you needing to chase growth when spring finally arrives and temperatures pick up.

Food for thought ?

All the best.

Mark Hunt