January 27th, 2025
Hi All,
On the morning of Friday, 24th January, a record-breaking wind speed of 183kmh (114 mph) was measured in Mace Head, Co Galway in Ireland, breaking the old record by 1mph measured in 1945. Yesterday morning, 330,000 homes were still without power in The Republic of Ireland, with the Met Office rating Storm Éowyn as the strongest storm for 10 years.
On its way across the Atlantic, Storm Éowyn underwent a process known as 'cyclogenesis'. This term is used to describe an area of low pressure that deepens by more than 24 millibars in 24 hours. The weather stats show that Storm Éowyn deepened by 50 millibars, imparting more energy to the storm system itself.
Incidentally, the strong jet stream that propelled Storm Éowyn, also propelled a British Airways flight from Las Vegas to Heathrow to reach 814mph, just shy of subsonic speeds as it picked up that formidable tailwind !
RSPB Big Garden Birdwatch
The RSPB Big Garden Birdwatch ran over the weekend, with results submission up until the 23rd of February. As the image above shows, we don't have any issue in our garden in terms of bird watching, though it appears a state of role reversal is present as they are very clearing watching us !!
We counted over 50 birds visiting our garden, though it has to be said, 21 of these were Blackbirds from successive generations that have bred in our garden or close by. We were up on this not surprisingly and for receiving both Pied and Grey Wagtails. No House Sparrows though, just a solitary Dunnock and a myriad of Tits (if you can have a myriad of Tits that is !)

Fresh from Storm Éowyn, we have another storm system currently sitting to the west of Ireland. (see image above) This is due to pass across the U.K & Ireland during the course of Monday / Tuesday with a further low pressure skirting the south coast of England on Wednesday. Incidentally this low pressure will form into a Dana - cut-off low pressure and push down across Spain later in the week, one to watch. Once we get past mid-week, the good news is we have high pressure building thereafter and this will eventually form into a blocking system which will keep Atlantic low pressure systems at bay as we move into the 1st week of February. The initial high pressure will pull up milder air before moving northwards causing its trailing edge to pull in easterlies.
The projection is for an Omega blocking event to form across Europe so for those who are fighting very wet courses and pitches currently, there is potentially light at the end of the tunnel.
You can see the way the weather will change from a strong jet stream signature to one where the jet stream slows and then forms into the familiar Omega (Ω) blocking event which I think could last until 11th, 12th February potentially.


Has the character of the jet stream changed ?
Whilst catching up on my weekly reading (Motorcycle News, New Scientist and a plethora of Danish baking books !), I came across an article in The 15th January edition of New Scientist discussing whether there is a link between our changing climate and a change in the characteristic of the jet stream. The clear inference is that with a warming Polar region, there is less temperature differential between the Pole and The Equator and it is this differential that drives the jet stream. Less energy into the jet stream means more Omega and Diffluent blocking event formation, more Dana / Cut-off low pressure system development and ultimately more 'extreme weather', though I don't like that term. For sure we have seen a greater frequency of blocking events across the U.K, Ireland and Continental Europe in the beginning of this century. My clearest analogy is imagine the jet stream as a river, when it is flowing fast, the current is strong, when it is flowing slowly it meanders into eddies. It is these eddies that are symptomatic of Blocking system development.
So, to summarise our current weather, wet and windy to continue till mid-week and then to be replaced potentially by a spell of dry, settled high pressure that may persist through to the 10th-12th February (that statement involves a large dose of Mystic Megging). OK, so let's look at what this could mean agronomically.....
Agronomic Notes - w/c 27-01-25

Now OK, if you are looking at 20mm+ rainfall over the past few days as many areas of Ireland, England, Wales and Scotland have received, you may be thinking that the image above is a non-starter (and it may well be). Regardless I will make the case for the fact that some areas (like The Midlands for example) didn't receive the same amount of rainfall and so if we do indeed enter a prolonged dry spell, the soil profile will dry out and you may indeed have an early aeration window. Now I have banged this drum for probably the last 15 years to the extent where it is a given from my perspective. An early season dry spell in February is a great opportunity to get some organic matter removal undertaken (if it is required that is) and / or deep aeration (provided the soil profile is not going to smear down the vertidrain holes) before the spring. I would usually follow it with the application of a low nitrogen, organic / mineral-organic fertiliser which will provide nice and consistent growth whenever conditions allow. If all goes well, you can get into March without the need to whack 40kg/ha of immediately-available N on in order to get your surfaces growing ahead or after a more traditional spring aeration.
I mean think about it, if we create significant growth, we are creating more organic matter which you then need to remove presumably at some point, sounds like a bit of a viscous circle to me. Take it out, create it, take it out again, ad infinitum. I understand that we are moving on from this approach with the advent of clipping yield measurement, growth ratio calculation and the like, but it does boil down to the simple equation of organic matter creation vs. removal.

Now to finish off with a slight note of caution. Hidden in the long-term projections for February is the potential of a warm area, high pressure system to develop which could bring with it some increased pressure from Microdochium nivale for the U.K, Ireland and Denmark. A big caveat should be applied here as it is nearly 14 days away and so the likelihood of the prognosis changing is high, but think of it as an early warning, a blip on the forward radar which may or may not come to fruition. One to keep an eye on.
OK, that's me for this week, I hope your facility wasn't too damaged by Storm Éowyn and that you dry down soon.
All the best.
Mark Hunt
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